Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 89195.577488 94089.650829 98980.032713 104229.999878 109702.998233 115236.835524 121251.631369
2025-02-09 81136.472053 88635.399534 96336.297549 104825.123136 113909.163497 123327.925173 133821.170704
2025-02-16 74906.465163 84137.703624 93824.562739 104725.687667 116629.476354 129211.336330 143492.909269
2025-02-23 70500.194298 81056.004269 92334.123101 105244.767623 119578.380263 134966.757187 152698.967843
2025-03-02 66625.760385 78197.296032 90758.326275 105354.012377 121792.926218 139680.366844 160559.556879
2025-03-09 64124.512328 76650.141002 90438.685213 106672.095222 125185.998264 145567.218392 169622.762852
2025-03-16 60875.882887 74047.998792 88742.759582 106258.786968 126472.055255 148967.550513 175793.959486
2025-03-23 59176.114190 73111.489626 88843.337085 107802.461478 129909.063538 154747.427626 184635.602209
2025-03-30 57311.613318 71871.419428 88495.204243 108738.814042 132575.235065 159598.201659 192390.113148
2025-04-06 55207.564040 70243.288214 87599.703077 108948.642596 134323.750900 163338.457940 198830.682269
2025-04-13 53141.535838 68568.340717 86565.397487 108916.507272 135722.136534 166623.159409 204711.031064
2025-04-20 52192.826278 68196.328333 87043.648163 110652.457969 139192.757087 172331.227860 213451.239339
2025-04-27 51249.777760 67814.673164 87508.839828 112390.439079 142708.178962 178162.208025 222446.950446
2025-05-04 49881.827372 66855.519855 87230.173538 113194.507460 145083.740483 182642.346098 229865.862747
2025-05-11 48165.707077 65396.472686 86280.591299 113125.560450 146359.132803 185780.074608 235670.373375
2025-05-18 46861.637229 64409.196657 85871.993313 113686.011617 148375.881561 189797.616852 242539.693268
2025-05-25 45425.633496 63201.590792 85141.652580 113804.002562 149814.794176 193094.704199 248532.237727
2025-06-01 44667.022097 62838.148702 85450.802149 115207.245186 152839.790175 198333.653447 256918.448796
2025-06-08 43117.440101 61392.024334 84336.557044 114767.450587 153526.720877 200676.970054 261741.869829
2025-06-15 42568.452550 61241.484944 84866.159022 116410.262406 156831.228080 206265.638460 270599.346256
2025-06-22 41769.964090 60730.564146 84906.256318 117406.607085 159308.341619 210829.682923 278206.348656
2025-06-29 40683.307545 59799.019142 84368.467066 117629.865449 160782.032307 214132.567509 284247.915857
2025-07-06 39540.344373 58756.984155 83654.589243 117595.673969 161904.060645 216982.173360 289723.042173